Sunday, 31 May 2015

Is Jan Dhan diluted ?


              Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana is a National Mission (PMJDY)  has been started by the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi, on 28 August , 2014. He announce this scheme during his first Independence Day speech on 15 August, 2014. The scheme aims at ensuring the common man living in India to have access to financial services like banking savings and deposit accounts, remittance, credit, insurance, pension and other financial benefits granted by the government, for the deserving sections, in future.

              !.5 crore bank accounts were opened under this scheme. This entered the Guiness book of World Records. According to the Guinness World Records Certificate, most bank accounts opened in one week      As announced by the PM of India, Jan Dhan is a scheme to benefit the common man of India. Thus this scheme has a lot of benefits for families opening an account under this scheme.

               The massive opening of the accounts should have targeted only those families who do not possess any bamk account. But the achievement of PMJDY needs to reach and relieve still many families who have not yet managed to open an account. There is still,an existence of rich classes who have a great influence on the rural poor. The timidity of such poor prevent them from having an account. As such, a regular vigilance through secret methods, should be initiated with a political will to rescue such families from the traditional suffering. When all the needy and  the people who fall in BPL, avail themselves of the scheme, the nation will have achieved one milestone in the path of progress. This may be one task but it would bring out such families who are always deprived of the government benefit stream. In most welfare schemes during the past decades, the money meant for the poor, either got embezzled or has been got deviated to the well-doing sections of the rural and urban society.

                  Controlling the above pilferage, will be a Herculean task for the government.. Firstly, the lack of political will among the leaders, add the administrative officials into their corrupt stream. Secondly, the complaisant nature of the downtrodden section of rural society, makes the work easy for the  'bada babus and bada  sahebs, who are the actual rulers of the village.

                  Hence, when a scheme is rolled out, the basic preventive measure to be taken is to see that it does not go off the track. Otherwise, the deserving needy, living in the remote corners of rural India, remain aloof, from the government's financial stream, which is basically meant for the upliftment of the downtrodden. Secondly, the branches of the banks, must be extended in a way to reach such families, which live far away from the banks, and do not have a road connectivity.

                  On the other hand, the government has to feel complacent with the number of accounts opened. The fact is the existing account holders have a lion's share in the figure of 1.5 crore achieved. The duplication of accounts, is not only a waste of time for the bankers, but also a waste of stationery. Such schemes are not only impressive by nature but also an uphill task. For instance, when a man ventures into path with many thorns, he should be equipped with shoes. So, the speed of opening the accounts and the numbers of accounts alone, cannot give out quality.


              

Friday, 22 May 2015

Co-operative Federalism



              Co-operative Federalism is the spirit and the guiding principle behind the newly created National

Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog.
     
           
               The recommendations of the 14th Finance Commission has been whole-heartedly accepted by the

government though they have a far reaching implications for the central government's budget-making. The

Commission has recommended 42% Central government's tax revenues to the states.  The recommendations

of the finance commissions in the past, ranged from one to two percents. Astonishingly, the giant leap this

year, which gives an enormous share, reduces the fiscal space for the central goernment to a considerable

extent. Subsequentlly, the defence has to compete with other sectors to maintain its share. As per the

roadmap, revenue expenditure is projected to grow by 13.5% in the remaining years of the projected period,

to keep it firm.

               Unlike the 13th Finance Commission which covered both revenue and capital expenditure, the

14th Finance Commission has limited its projection to defence revenue expenditure only, arguing that capital

expenditure is beyond the scope of its assessment.
 
           

Indian Defence budget 2015-16



                  The defence budget of India has grown by eight percent over the previous year’s Defence 

budget but the growth rate amounts  to 11% over the revised  allocation for 2014-15. It is obvious that 

original budget allocation of 2014-15 has been revised downward to the extent of Rs.6,630 crore. This is 

because of the reduction in the capital expenditure by Rs.12,623 crore. On the other hand, the revenue 

expenditure has been revised upward by Rs. 5,993 crore.
                Putting together the revenue expenditure and the capital expenditure of the Indian 

Defence Budget of the past two successive allocations, the total amount under the Budget 
Estimate  

was Rs. 229000.0 for 2014-15. The total amount allocated under the Revised Estimate for 2014-15 

was Rs. 222370.0. The total amount under the Budget Estimate for 2015-16 is Rs. 246727.0. 

                While the share of Defence Budget in Central Government Expenditure in 2015-16 is 13.9% , the 
share for the previous year was 12.8%.

                Like in the past, the Army has the lion's share (53% of the defence budget ( Rs. 1,30,874 crore).

 The Air Force stands in the second place with an allocation of Rs. 56,658 crore. The occupies the third 

place with Rs. 40,529 crore. The D.R.D.O. gets Rs. 14,358 crore. An allocation of Rs. 3644 crore has 

been done for the Ordinance Factories.

                The Air Force comes a distant second with an allocation of Rs. 56,658 crore, followed by the Navy (Rs. 

40,529 crore), Defence Research and Development Organisation (Rs. 14,358 crore) and Ordnance 

Factories (Rs. 3,644 crore) (see Figure II).  It is to be noted, however, that the Army is the most 

revenue-intensive service. In 2015-16, 80 per cent of its budget has been earmarked for revenue 

expenditure. The corresponding figures for the Navy and Air force are 38 and 41 per cent, respectively.

Chinese Military Budget



                   In 2014, the Chinese government allocated $131.57 billion as Chinese annual military budget. 

This is an increase from the 2013 military budget (an increase of 12.2%) With this big leap, China becomes 

the second leading nation in the world in huge spending for military budget. The U.S. stands in the first place 

in allocation of huge money for the annual military budget.
     
                      China became the third largest exporter of major arms in 2010-14

 In 2003, the defense spending of China was estimated to be 38 billion dollars (2.3% of China’s GDP). The 

official figure was 22.4 billion dollars.
                   
                       Chinese military spending doubled between 1997 and 2003, getting close to the defense 

spending of the U.K. and Japan. It continued to grow 10% annually during 2003-2005. The Chinese military 
spending for 2009 was US$ 100 billion as per the Report of  SIPRI. In 2012, reports said that the Chinese 

military spending could go upto $525.40 by the year 2015, which is larger than all other Asian nations 

combined.


Friday, 8 May 2015

Two-thirds majority deciding the future of a nation


            In a democracy, two-thirds majority puts the bill or legislation into force. Before it takes the shape of law, the legislators should educate themselves with do's and don'ts, discriminating the good and the bad, and how to derive conclusions. One needs to come out of his ego, the ego that he is always right and as such, need not heed to anybody or to the second thought.
                           
                                    Repentance can alter the mind but not actions done.

Can bills drive economy ?


          Various bills are passed after a course of discussion and two-thirds approval of the parliament. To come to consensus or to derive conclusions, is not only meticulous and diligent task but also a judicious one.
           It is the mind that goes crazy many a time and dominates wisdom. Foresight gets tamed for the time being but the defective decision takes the shape of a Bill that sows a seed for the for the future course of action.
             Hence, decision-making at such crucial levels, that decide the fate of the millions, should be handled with care.        

Might makes Right

                          The phrase, 'Might makes right' is an aphorism. It has several potential meanings

 but, usually, it conveys a negative meaning. One of the shades of the meanings is ' the blend of            social-laddermisuse of power coupled with domination. It is unfortunate that the

society's view of right and wrong is decided by people who are currently in power. Historical instances

which are convenient tools to fool the public or to tame any revolution that might emerge.

           For centuries, the axiom has been exploited in various ways. Legal establishments remain upto the

paper. People, who get elevated to power, begin to explore the various of fooling the people who vote them

to power.


            It is unfortunate that still the rich, and those with political power, have their say. The common man, busy

with the business of making his bread and butter, do not find time enough to question the wrong social

 practices, which have become a part of  global tradition. The power of the protests and processions remain

short-lived. Moreover, most of the protests and processions are not vital because they are fuelled by the

politicians in the opposition, for their selfish goals. In some cases, the enraged protests are used by the losers

(in the election) to overthrow the ruling government. Finally, the developments give rise, only to substitute

one greedy ruler with another greedy one. Elections get conducted from the grass root-level to the highest

rung, in a fair way, but the rulers from the rural level to the highest level of the political hierarchy, manage to

convert the democratic process into a race for greed.

           Even, the successful movements and revolutions of the past have given benefit to the privileged

sections of the society. Very little has been done in the direction of narrowing the gap between the rich and

the poor. Thus, achieving a balanced economy, always remains a uncherished dream. In fact, a balanced

economy is not a target that is achieved, and left uncared. A balanced economy, even if achieved, would

grow like a plant that is left unchecked. As such, it should be pruned from time to time. This is not possible

without the social awareness of the ruled. Also, the political will of the rulers become inevitable in propelling

the economy in a balanced manner.

             The experiences of the past and the present, are enough to understand that the opinions of

philosophers should not be taken for granted. Malicious opinions should be curbed down instead of

emasculating them with justice. The past social practices have seasoned the generations to such an extent that
hardly, is there any room left for redefining things. This further, hinders any chance to dismantle the abstract

evil constructions. Much damage has been done to the social system.

             The time has come for 'think new, live new'.


Thursday, 7 May 2015

China overtaking Italy, France, Germany and the U.K.

  It was in 2000 that China overtook Italy, in terms of nominal GDP by Expenditure approach. It surpassed

France in 2002, the United Kingdom in 2008 and that of Germany in 2007. Japan having been pushed to

third place in 2009, China occupied the second place. next to the U.S.A..


           The speed, enthusiasm and the consistency with which China has been rushing forward with a

formidable and highly planned economy, makes it obvious that it would it would grab the foremost place in

the forth-coming years.


           By the 2010, China's average annual GDP growth was 9.91%. It reached an historical high of 15.2%
in 1984 and a record low of 3.8% in 1990. Based on the current price, the country's annual GDP growth in

the 32 years that extends between 1979 and 2010, was 15.8%. It reached a historical high of 36.41% in

1994 and a record low of 6.25% in 1999.


Rome was not built in a day

          Has China outdone the leading nations of the world in designing a formidable plan that could drive its economy forward to reach new heights ?
           
                                                                                                                                                                     The real journey of the Chinese economy began with the approval of the State Council of China, to establish a System of National Accounting. It intended to use the GDP to measure the national economy. China started the study of theoretical foundation. The principles about how to guide and deal with accounting gained significance. It embarked on with the business of establishing a new system of national economic accounting.
              Dr. Fengbo Zhang was the first citizen of the people's Republic of China to receive a Ph.D in economics from an overseas country. He headed the Chinese Macroeconomic research.This also became the key research project of the seventh five year plan of China. Completing and publishing the China's GDP and data by China's own Research was his aim. Chinese Macroeconomic Structure and Policy is a book which summarizes the aim of the project.
The book has been edited by Mr. Fengbo but has been authored collectively by the Research Center of the State Council of China.
         The research utilized the World Bank's method as a reference. The Chinese wisdom lies in making numerous appropriate adjustments in the borrowed method, to make the method compatible with China's national condition. Also, the GDP has been converted to USD based data by utilizing the moving average exchange rate,
         The research systematically completed China's GDP and GDP per capita from 1952 to 1986 and analyzed growth rate, the change and contribution rates of each component.
          One of the most significant features of the research is that it included international comparisons. The research compared MPS and the System of National Accounting, looking at the results from the two systems, to analyze the Chinese economy. This achievement created the foundation for China GDP research.
          The notice of the State Council of China enforcing the implementation of the Western System of National Accounting in 1992, in the place of the Russian MPS. Since then the Western GDP indicator has become China's most important economic indicator.
           Based on Dr. Fengbo Zhang's research, in 1997, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in collaboration with Hitosubashi University of Japan, re-estimated China's GDP Data from 1952 upto 1995 based on the principal of System of National Accounting.
            A meticulous comparative study of the GDP measurement taken up by Dr.Fengo in 1980's and the GDP measurement of the National Bureau of Statistics and the Japan's cooperative research, showed consistency and coherence. Slight deviation rate is noticed.
       
            Thus with the changing Global conditions, the Chinese did not delay in making a blend of the their native needs and technology available outside.
         
           

  
         

Contrasting the GDP of China and the U.S.


       Five decades ago, when the GDP of the U.S. stood at 54.33billion USD, the Chinese GDP stood at 59.18 billion USD.
       If the abundant natural resources and long cherished technological implementation have been inevitable significant factors for taking the country's GDP forward, it is the spirit of honing the skills and spirit of competing with the leading nations of the world, that has hastened economic progress of China. It is the not only the spirit of China but also the solidarity of the Chinese and the government and that have succeeded one after the other.
       A deliberate policy and a successive plan that descends through decades, without losing the resonance, despite the changing political leaders, is a vital factor of steady economic growth, that cannot be denied.

Can economic justice become true with the rise in the GDP ?

Climbing the social ladder - how about even being on the ladder ?

9327855-ladder-of-success-reaching-into-a-blue-sky-and-clouds
                                      Across the political spectrum, there is apparent consensus that not enough is being done,

that too many people from privilege continue to dominate politics, business, media etc.              



                               Besides achieving the billion and the trillion marks, it would be wise on the part of the

ruling parties to see that the rolling economic growth rate is coupled with economic justice.

                              The higher the difference in the standard of living between the lower rungs and the higher

rungs of the social ladder, the poorer the economic justice is. Unless the factors and methods of judging

economic prosperity remain defective, prosperity, cannot be an indicator of fairness and justice.
 

                               The point of argument is that down-trodden masses and the common people find it hard

to take their reasonable share from the national wealth. What the debate often misses is recognition that

some disadvantaged groups are often deprived of the basic needs. Hardly, does economic justice become a

thing reality. In fact, it becomes not even a succour but its harbinger. What makes matters worse, is the lack

of awareness among the major part of the world population that lives in lack of awareness as well as poverty

which binds the victims, not only to social backwardness but also to the conventional inferiority. As the world

gives survival for the fittest, there is hardly any chance for one to ensure one's rights merely by remaining at

the mercy of others. Each man needs to shed his ignorance and row himself to the zenith of justice.



           

Large population : A boon to the nervous system


       The large population of a country usually cripples the nation’s economic development. But in the case of India, which is characterized  with its typical market and monetary policy, the large population can turn out to be a boon. The primary and the manufacturing sector can remain unaffected by the inconsistent global crisis that raises its hood more and less, frequently. Indian consumers to a great extent are accustomed to the native products. As such, the fall in the liquidity in the currency at the international level can have little effect.
                 Hence, this feature should be preserved so that the country’s trade and commerce does not get paralyzed as a result of any economic global crisis.

Wednesday, 6 May 2015

The impact of 2008 recession on the two fast-growing economies


           Both India and China have become quite significant on the global stage. Their significance cannot be overlooked. Their economies are not similar. They are fast growing economies.
            Indian market is strengthened by three significant characteristic features – the public, the private and the public-private partnership model ( the PPP model ).
             The features of mixed economy and the PPP model have  been quite compatible with the Indian context.
              Indian market is safe-guarded with the government’s involvement. The timely intervention of the RBI keeps the inflation balanced to the best extent possible. The repo rate and the reverse repo-rate regulated by the RBI plays an important role in maintaining the value of rupee and its liquidity.
             Before falling down to a shocking 4.7% , the economic growth rate of India had touched  9% growth rate. Similarly, China’s growth rate had touched 12% before the shocking decline owing to the global economic melt-down.
             However, India remained immune to the global economic crisis of 2008 and its impact to a great extent possible. Perhaps, the credit goes to the Indian commerce system that characterized by the government’s significant role played in regulating the Indian market and commerce. It is this feature that subjects the wild enthusiasm of the private enterprises and the individuals who do not hesitate taking risk with the global market’s fluctuations.
             It is a fact that China incurred heavy losses owing to the 2008 global economic meltdown. It was the Secondary sector of China that received a heavy blow. With the diminishing purchasing power of the consumers of the United States and with the decline in the liquidity of their currency, most of the Chinese industries which relied on exports, came to a close.
    The Westerners gave priority to basic needs instead going for products meant for luxury.
                       On the other hand, India, which had made a mark in the service sector, received a staunch blow to the same. However, a major part of the market, being inter-dependent on the sub-markets within the Indian subcontinent, remained unbothered of the ongoing crisis in the global trade that had come to a retardation to a considerable extent. Thanks to the large population of the country, that made the native producers and the native consumers inter-dependent on each other, without venturing into the global flood of economic meltdown.
                        India should, nevertheless, learn a lesson, that in future too, it should remain resistant and immune to the global impact. With its huge population, it can certainly manage to become self-reliant by maintaining a super-structure of native system of commerce and trade that is reinforced with the RBI’s policy that is in most cases mature and guarded with foresight.

Contrasting the economic growth rate of India and China


     The journey of India's economy, a decade after the country's freedom from the British rule, can be taken into consideration. In 1960, the GDP of India stood at 37.68 billion USD. By 1970, its GDP reached 63.52 billion USD. In the year, 1980, India's GDP stood at 189.6 billion USD. In 1990, India's GDP stood at 326.6 billion USD. 476.6 billion USD was the mark touched by India, in 2000. According to the 2010 report, India's GDP touched 1.708 trillion USD. The 2013 report on India's economy states that its GDP stood at 1.877 trillion. On the other hand China touched the peak of 9.24 trillion USD in  2013.                                            

         China touched the trillion mark
 in 1998(the GDP at 1.019 trillion USD) but India had to wait until 2007(the GDP at 1.239 USD). This is almost a difference of a decade. In 1963, when China's GDP was 50.1 billion USD, India too stood close to the same mark(49.27) Since then the gap has been steadily getting widened.
       In 1960, India's GDP stood at 37.68 billion USD and China's GDP
 at 59.18 billion USD. The differenceof these GDPs is 21.5 billion USD
which has been increasing dramatically since then.
       What factors could be  responsible for the incredible and drastic change in the chinese economy between the decade before 1963 and after ?
        Certainly, the communist party should have played a significant role in propelling the Chinese economy.
        The fact that a smart leadership and administration gives a desired shape to the economy of a country. Much of the fate of the people of a nation, lies in the hands of the leadership. It is then, the the kind of political mechanism and the government machinery, that lubricates the wheels of prosperity.

How can beggars imperil the safety of a country ?



              The existence of beggars can pose danger to the society. They can become a wonderful tool in the hands of crime in different forms.
          Generating employment or making the beggars self-reliant will be a two prong approach. This will not only put an end to their begging and provide livelihood but also prevent them from taking part in any form of crime.

Who is responsible for the existence of beggars ?

 

        Certain things cannot be performed by the public. It is the government that can do such things. One of such things is rehabilitating beggars who become a menace to the society.The problem needs the immediate attention of the government.   
                                   It is not the laziness of the beggars alone that should be held responsible for the existence of begging. The social competence to eke a living, is what makes matters worse. As such, the government can play a vital role in changing the fate of the beggars and eradicate this evil gradually.
      The following measures can help putting an end to begging :
  Certain things cannot be performed by the public. It is the government that can do such things. One of such things is rehabilitating beggars who become a menace to the society.The problem needs the immediate attention of the government.   
                                   It is not the laziness of the beggars alone that should be held responsible for the existence of begging. The social competence to eke a living, is what makes matters worse. As such, the government can play a vital role in changing the fate of the beggars and eradicate this evil gradually.
     1)  Rehabilitation :  During  the budget allocation, some money should be allocated for rehabilitating the beggars who create a menace to the society. A massive construction of shelter should be taken up in various places. Seasoning of mind should be done before embarking on the process of giving a vocational training to them. Through such a process beggars can be normalized into responsible citizens.
 2)  Employment through Vocational training :
    Proper vocational training can enable the beggars to become self-reliant. They can eke a living by transforming themselves into skilled labourers.     

Necessity is the mother of invention :



                When the investigation process against the absconders of income tax becomes staunch, the absconder explore the various means of evading the tax.
       Income tax, being one of the chief sources of the national income, should not be underrated even by the government. The investigation agencies, alone, should not be burdened with the business of tracing the absconders and the various means of evading the tax.
        An additional body of research needs to be put in place to make things easy for the investigating agency.
        Thus, the fact needs to be realized that an honest rule alone cannot ensure a genuine national income and growth rate. Checking the leakages is a herculean task that needs changing strategies that are potential enough to tackle the modern methods of deception.

The financial gap


           The smaller the difference between the richest section and the poorest section of the society, the higher its GDP is.

         TheDespite taking economic measures like imposing income tax and wealth tax, why does extreme 

poverty exist ? Why do destitures exist ? Where does the fault lie ? There are certain factors which still need 

to be  looked into. They are


       !) Leakages : Though a fine mechanism of income tax exist, there are still cases where absconding tax

payers manage to convince and mislead the authorities, through logical adjustment. Huge amounts of money

converted into donations in the name of charity. In some cases, a lot of money can be hidden in the accounts

of a number of people who are allured with some money in return for having provided a refuge to the black

money.
          2)   The huge amounts of money that goes unnoticed need not only be  deposited into the accounts of

some other people.
  3)     There may be cases where the black money may be invested for the small or medium level business of
the needy who could be asked to repay at a later time when the absconder’s need arises.
         From the above observations questions arise – Why should the innocent poor and the starving be

victimized at the cost of a weak financial machinery that still needs to be strengthened.

         Investigation strategies should not be left stagnant. With the changing strategies of the absconders,

there is an urgent need for modernizing obsolete methods of investigation.
             Investigation should not exempt anyone. Political or bureaucratic emasculation should not become

an impediment to the investigation process.

             The fact that without economic safety to the people of a nation, the spirit of democracy gets lost, is

to be realized by everyone. Subsequently, every individual in the society should join hands with the

government in the governing process and in the business of development.

         Literacy and awareness among the people of a nation can help reducing the poverty. However, more

measures have to be taken in this direction.

         If people fight against poverty with the weapons of literacy and awareness, it is the government who

can reduce the extreme gap between the rich and the poor by weeding out the absconding tax payments.

This is not an easy job. It needs upgradation in the techniques of dealing with the intellectual absconders.

When law-makers bring pressure on the absconders, the latter explore the other means of evading the tax.

A competition of false prestige


        The governments of many nations strive to compete with the  nations whose economic growth rate keeps soaring. The fact is that mere race without the economicdevelopment coupled with a deliberate policy, cannot give out the right consequences. A blind pursuit may snatch the bread and butter of the millions.

The misleading and the misled

 
    A false GDP and a false economic growth rate may be high and impressive to both the misleading and the misled, but it would leave the law-makers and the sufferers without any solution as long as they confine themselves to the world of illusion.
     A country's true development cannot be reflected in existing method of calculating the GDP. The method has been conventional for a long time but it gives an overall picture. The plight of the majority of the population, gets diluted in the process. As such, the economic condition of the lowest and the middle rungs of the social ladder, is put on the back-burner. However, the issues gets wings when the politicians use the same for political stunts. It is fairly used for deceiving the voters with false promises.

Standard of living

 
    What is the indicator for a perfect standard of living of a nation, in the true sense ?
     
         In the true sense, a nation cannot boast of the its standard of living on the basis of its illusionary GDP. Usually, a high GDP becomes a political tool and economic tool in the hands of political enthusiasts and business tycoons who wish to lead the population of the country with their opinion.The GDP that takes into account the economic development of the rich and those who are above the poverty line, cannot satisfy the definition of a GDP in the true sense.
  A nation can boast of its high GDP only when its GDP takes into account the economic condition of the major part of the population that remains below the poverty line.
  A serious note should be taken of the difference between the capacity the rich and the privileged class of the society. The annual income and the purchasing power of both the poorest section and the richest section of the society needs to be taken into consideration before the analysts and the governing body declares the GDP.